What: Economic Aspects of Armed Conflict, War, and Peace (Spring 2010)
Where: Augusta State University, Augusta, GA, USA
By whom: J. Brauer (Economics: jbrauer@aug.edu) | H. van Tuyll (History: hvantuyl@aug.edu)
For whom: Honors students | Prerequisites: Honors program status
When: M/W 13:00-14:15, Room AH-E254
How: Lectures/discussion
Readings: Selected book chapters, reports, and journal articles posted on password-protected course web site
Textbooks:
▸ C.H. Anderton and J.R Carter. 2009. Principles of Conflict Economics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
▸ R. Smith. 2009. Military Economics. New York: Palgrave.
▸ J. Brauer and J.P. Dunne. 2010. A Manual on Macroeconomic Fundamentals for Conflict-Affected States. Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace. [Draft v4 online: designed as a training manual for peace negotiators.]

[updated by jb: 21 April 2010]

There are 3 sections to this page:

1. General [general course information]
2. Syllabus [the syllabus and readings]. The syllabus itself has three parts.
- Part I: Theory, models, and data
- Part II: Military manpower and capital
- Part III: Topics
3. Research paper [information pertaining to the research paper]

1. GENERAL

Course synposis : This survey course introduces students to how elementary economics may be employed to think about questions of armed conflict, war, and peace. The point of the course is not to provide ready-made answers but to induce thinking about complex problems and to generate enthusiasm for the topic. While there will be some lecturing and demonstration of techniques, the course also emphasizes (much) reading, reflection, and discussion.

Academic honesty: Discussion and cooperation among students is encouraged, but cheating, ghostwriting, plagiarism, or other forms of dishonesty on the exams or in the preparation of the research paper is not tolerated and results in a failing grade for the course.

This page contains links to information in Adobe pdf format. If you do not have Adobe Acrobat Reader on your computer, download it from here.

Because we sometimes update Lecture notes just before the day of the lecture, please download lecture notes only for the current lecture day. Otherwise you risk not having the most current notes available to you.

The Readings are copyright-protected and placed on a separate usn/pswd-protected web site. As a courtesy to you, you may use them for study in this class/course, but you may NOT distribute any of the files to anybody else. Please respect the authors' work and the copyright laws.

2. SYLLABUS

PART I: THEORIES, MODELS, AND DATA

Week 1: Introduction to economics of conflict, war, and peace
W 6 January [s1.1] Lecture notes: Session 1.1 (ppt) | Session 1.1 (pdf)
- Course introduction/overview; conflict data (who, what, why, when, where, and how?);
Reading for this week:
- Read the material on the course web site with much care so that you understand the structure of the course and the requirements

Week 2: Modeling violent conflict
M 11 January [s2.1] Lecture notes: Session 2.1 (ppt) | Session 2.1 (pdf)
- A theory of death (Boulding’s model)
W 13 January [s2.2] Lecture notes: Session 2.2 (ppt) | Session 2.2 (pdf)
- Theory: thinking about conflict (3 economies; production of security; PPF model: disruption, diversion, destruction)
Reading for this week:
- Textbook: Anderton/Carter. 2009. [Chapter 9] [Boulding's model, read section 9.1 only, not the whole chapter]
- Textbook: Smith. 2009. [Chapter 1]
- Textbook: Anderton/Carter. 2009. [for weeks 2 and 3] [Chapter 1] [Chapter 2] and [Chapter 3] [We explain some of the concepts later on in the course but start reading now.]

Week 3: Modeling violent conflict
M 18 January [s3.1]
- [holiday; no class]
W 20 January [s3.2] Lecture notes: Session 3.2 (ppt) | Session 3.2 (pdf)
- The Edgeworth Box—disruption, diversion, destruction again | spreadsheet [here]
Reading for this week:
- Textbook: Anderton/Carter. 2009. [Chapter 12] [read only section 12.3, not the whole chapter]

Week 4: Review
M 25 January [s4.1] Review session #1
- Sample exam questions [here]
- [research paper proposal due (1-2 pages; research question; hypothesis; data sources; analytical approach)]
W 27 January [s4.2]
- [Dr. Brauer is lecturing in London; exam administered by Dr. van Tuyll]
- Exam #1 (12% of course grade)

PART II: MILITARY MANPOWER AND CAPITAL

Week 5: Manpower I: state forces
M 1 February [s5.1] Lecture notes: Session 5.1 (ppt) | Session 5.1 (pdf)
- Conscription and all-volunteer forces
W 3 February [s5.2] Lecture notes: Session 5.2 (ppt) | Session 5.2 (pdf)
- Private military/security companies
Reading for this week:
- Poutvaara, P. and A. Wagener. 2007. “Conscription: Economic Costs and Political Allure.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 2(1):6-15. [here]
- Simon, C. and J. Warner. 2007. “Managing the All-Volunteer Force in a Time of War.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 2(1):20-29. [here]
- Brauer, J. and H. van Tuyll. 2008. Castles, Battles, and Bombs: How Economics Explains Military History. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. [Chapter 8]

Week 6: Manpower II: nonstate forces
M 8 February [s6.1] Lecture notes: Session 6.1 (ppt) | Session 6.1 (pdf)
- Nonstate forces: overview; transnational terrorism
W 10 February [s6.2] Lecture notes: Session 6.2 (ppt) | Session 6.2 (pdf)
- Transnational terrorism (continued); [introduction to game theory]
Reading for this week:
- Llussa, F. and J. Tavares. 2007. “The Economics of Terrorism: A Synposis.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 2(1):62-70. [here]
- Enders, W. and T. Sandler. 2006. Political Economy of Terrorism. New York: Cambridge University Press [Chapter 4]
- or Textbook: Anderton/Carter. 2009. [Chapter 8]
- and/or Brauer, J. and H. van Tuyll. 2008. Castles, Battles, and Bombs: How Economics Explains Military History. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. [Chapter 8]
- and/or Brauer, J. 2006. Lecture at Univ. of North Carolina-Asheville [video] [here]

Week 7: Capital I: arms production and trade
M 15 February [s7.1] Lecture notes: Session 7.1 (ppt) | Session 7.1 (pdf)
- ABC weapons and arms race modeling | spreadsheet [here]
W 17 February [s7.2] Lecture notes: Session 7.2 (ppt) | Session 7.2 (pdf)
- Major conventional arms; arms trade: exports, imports, offsets
Reading for this week:
- Textbook: Anderton/Carter. 2009. [Chapter 10]
- Brauer, J. 2007. “Arms Industries, Arms Trade, and Developing Countries,” pp. 973-1015 in T. Sandler and K. Hartley, eds. Handbook of Defense Economics. Vol. 2. Amsterdam: Elsevier. [here]
- Textbook: Smith. 2009. [Chapter 5]

Week 8: Capital II: arms production and trade (continued)
M 22 February [s8.1] Lecture notes: Session 8.1 (ppt) | Session 8.1 (pdf)
- Taxing the global arms trade?
W 24 February [s8.2] Lecture notes: Session 8.2 (ppt) | Session 8.2 (pdf)
- Small arms and light weapons
Reading for this week:
- Brzoska, M. 2004. “Taxation of the global arms trade.” Kyklos 57(2):149-172. [here]
- Textbook: Smith. 2009. [Chapter 6]
- Brauer, J. 2007. “Arms Industries, Arms Trade, and Developing Countries,” pp. 973-1015 in T. Sandler and K. Hartley, eds. Handbook of Defense Economics. Vol. 2. Amsterdam: Elsevier. [here]
- Brauer, J. and J.P. Dunne. 2005. “Arms Trade Offsets and Development.” Africanus [South Africa] 35(1):14-24. [here]
- Markowski, S., S. Koorey, P. Hall, and J. Brauer. 2008. "Channels of Small-Arms Proliferation: Policy Implications for Asia-Pacific." The Economics of Peace and Security Journal. 3(1):79-85. [here]
- Brauer, J. and R. Muggah. 2006. “Completing the Circle: Building a Theory of Small Arms Demand.” Contemporary Security Policy 27(1):138-154. [here]

Week 9: Review
M 1 March [s9.1] Review session #2
- Sample exam questions [here]
- [research paper outline due; 2-3 pages; research question; literature; data (10%)]
W 3 March [s9.2] Exam #2 [midterm is today]
- Exam #2 (18%)

PART III: TOPICS

Week 10: Bargaining and alliance models
M 8 March [s10.1] Lecture notes: Session 10.1 (ppt) | Session 10.1 (pdf)
- A bargaining model of conflict
W 10 March [s10.2] Lecture notes: Session 10.2 (ppt) | Session 10.2 (pdf)
- An alliance model [SHIFTED TO 11.1]
Reading for this week:
- Textbook: Anderton/Carter. 2009.
--- Bargaining model [Chapter 5] [Chapter 6] [read chapter 5 and chapter 6.3]
--- Alliance model [Chapter 11]

Week 11: Transboundary and transgenerational effects
M 15 March [s11.1] Lecture notes: Session 11.1 (ppt) | Session 11.1 (pdf)
- Transgenerational effects [Sandler (1999)] [SHIFTED TO 13.2]
W 17 March [s11.2] Lecture notes: Session 11.2 (ppt) | Session 11.2 (pdf)
- Transboundary effects [Murdoch/Sandler (2002) and Salehyan/Gleditsch (2006)]
Reading for this week:
- Murdoch, J. and T. Sandler (2002). “Civil Wars and Economic Growth: A Regional Comparison.” Defence and Peace Economics 13(6):451-464. [here]
- Salehyan, I. and K.S. Gleditsch (2006). “Refugees and the Spread of Civil War.” International Organization 60(2):335-366. [here]
- Sandler, T. (1999). “Intergenerational Public Goods: Strategies, Efficiency and Institutions,” pp. 20-50 in I. Kaul, I. Grunberg, and M.A. Stern, eds., Global Public Goods: International Cooperation in the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press. [here]

Week 12: Macroeconomics and violence
M 22 March [s12.1] Lecture notes: Session 12.1 (ppt) | Session 12.1 (pdf)
- Macroeconomics and violence
W 24 March [s12.2] Lecture notes: Session 12.2 (ppt) | Session 12.2 (pdf)
- Macroeconomics and violence
Reading for this week:
- Brauer, J. and J. Tepper-Marlin. 2009. "Nonkilling Economics: Calculating the Size of a Peace World Gross Product," pp. 125-148 in J.E. Pim, ed. Toward a Nonkilling Paradigm. Honolulu, HI: Center for Global Nonkilling. [here]
- Brauer, J. and J.P. Dunne. 2010. A Manual on Macroeconomics Fundamentals for Conflict-Affected States. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace [draft, v6 - do not quote or cite]. [here]
- Collier, P. 2006. Royal Economic Society Annual Lecture [video] [here]
- [GD] Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development. 2008. Global Burden of Armed Violence. Geneva: Geneva Declaration Secretariat. [here]
- [AfDB] African Development Bank. 2008. Africa Development Report 2008/2009: Conflict Resolution, Peace, and Reconstruction in Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [here]
- [UNDP] United Nations Development Programme. 2008. Post-Conflict Economic Recovery: Enabling Local Ingenuity. UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery. New York: UNDP. [here]

Week 13: Peace economics
M 29 March [s13.1] Lecture notes: Session 13.1 (ppt) | Session 13.1 (pdf)
- Peace economics; third-party intervention; institutionalizing peace
W 31 March [s13.2] Lecture notes: Session 13.2 (ppt) | Session 13.2 (pdf)
- Peace economics; third-party intervention; institutionalizing peace [CLICK ON 11.1]
Reading for this week:
- Collier, P. 2007. The Bottom Billion. New York: Oxford University Press. [Chapter 2] and [Chapter 8]
- Brauer, J. 2004. “Developing Peacemaking Institutions: An Economist’s Approach,” pp. 137-153 in G. Harris, ed. Achieving Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cost-effective Alternatives to the Military. Pretoria, South Africa: Institute for Security Studies. [here]
- Brauer, J. 2006. “Theory and Practice of Intervention.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 1(2):17-23. [here]
- Cooper, N. 2006. “Peaceful Warriors and Warring Peacemakers.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 1(1):20-24. [here]
- Dunne, J.P. 2006. “After the Slaughter: Reconstructing Mozambique and Rwanda.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 1(2):39-46. [here]
- Yousif, B. 2006. “Economic Aspects of Peacekeeping in Iraq: What Went Wrong?” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 1(2):24-30. [here]

Masters' Tournament holiday week, 4-10 April 2010

Week 14: Student projects presentations I
M 12 April [s14.1]
- Reseach "Working Paper" due at beginning of class (10%)
- Student projects presentations
W 14 April [s14.2]
- Student projects presentations

Week 15: Student projects presentations II
M 19 April [s15.1]
- Student projects presentations
W 21 April [s14.2]
- Student projects presentations

Week 16: Exam Week
M 26 April [s16.1] Review session #3
- Sample exam questions [here]
W 28 April [s16.2] Exam #3
- [final research paper due at beginning of exam #3 (20%)]
- Exam #3 (18%)

Final exam dates: 30 April, 3-5 May.
Grades entered by Registrar: 6 May 2010

Course requirements
1. 3 exams (12%, 18%, 18% = 48%)
2. Research project
2a. Proposal (0%, but required)
2b. Outline (10%)
2c. Working Paper (10%)
2d. Final paper (20%)
3. Attendance (punctual; wide awake), preparation (readings/note taking), and participation (note taking; email; office hours; class discussion; etc.) (12%)

3. RESEARCH PAPER

- A 3,000-5,000 word, single-spaced paper (pdf file and in print).
- Late submissions are not accepted.
- [some of the material hereunder is by courtesy of Prof. Charles Anderton]

Purpose: The purpose of the paper assignment is for you to write about a peace, conflict, or security issue from the perspective of economics. Your paper may involve perspectives from other disciplines (e.g., political science, history, sociology), but you should focus on using economic concepts, data, and some economic model to develop one or more of your major points. Although it is important to use economic methods in explaining your topic, do not overuse or “force” the economic analysis just to satisfy the assignment. Instead, use economic concepts and a model to strengthen and deepen your analysis and presentation.

In practical terms (1) you need to ask a research question that you wish to answer, (2) you need to state a research hypothesis, (3) you need to use qualitative and/or quantitative data, and (4) you need to use some economic theory to address the research question.

Schedule:
1. By Monday, 25 January, you need to email (pdf only) Prof. Brauer a 1-2 page statement of (1) your research question, (2) your hypothesis, (3) the qualitative and/or quantitative data may wish to use, and (4) an idea of what kind of analytical technique you wish to employ in your resaerch. You need to list your name and email.
2. By Monday, 1 March, you need to email (pdf only) Prof. Brauer a thorough 2-3 page outline of your research paper, describing the progress you have made (1) in refining the research question, (2) your (revised) hypothesis, (3) in collecting, preparing, and analyzing the data, and (4) indicating the theory or theoretical method to be used to address your research question.
3. By Monday, 12 April, you need to email (pdf only) Prof. Brauer a 3-5,000 word single-spaced Working Paper. ("Working Paper" means a complete, professional paper.)
4. On Wednesday, 28 April, the final research paper (in print and as an emailed pdf file) is due at the beginning of the final exam.

Research paper topics: When considering possible paper topics, it is important to find one that is narrow, well-defined, manageable, and amenable to economic analysis. For example, a paper about war in general is too broad. A better focus would be a specific small-scale war (e.g., 1995 Peru/Ecuador border conflict), a particular battle (e.g., Gettysburg), or a particular engagement within a battle (e.g., Little Round Top at Gettysburg). When searching for a paper topic, consider reviewing newspapers, weekly periodicals, or reputable online sources. The class readings provide numerous applications of economics to conflict topics. Many of these leads could be followed up and developed into a paper.

Possible paper topics:
1. “Economic Causes and Consequences of Domestic Terrorism” [e.g., India]
2. “Counterterrorist Policy: Carrots versus Sticks.” [read Bruno Frey’s book Dealing with Terrorism, Stick or Carrot? Cheltenham, UK: E. Elgar, 2004, and apply his approach to a country, e.g., Peru, Sri Lanka]
3. “The Economics of Post-World War II European [or Japanese] Reconstruction.” Why does Germany’s [or Japan’s] reconstruction appear to have worked better than that of African states that have recently emerged from civil war? What’s different? Compare and contrast.
4. “The Private Sector in Conflict Zones.” Study the relevant work and reports published by International Alert, International Business Leaders Forum, or Global Witness. If you are interested in this topic, talk with us and we’ll “negotiate” the content of a good paper to write. We need to make sure that there is economics in the paper.
5. “The War that Follows Peace.” Pick a state and discuss the economics of its war and postwar period. For example, the 2003 Iraq war was over in a few weeks; what happened thereafter from an economic point of view? Why? Or pick one of the Central American wars of the 1980s and 1990s. What happened after war as compared to the war-period? Why?
6. “Why Peace Treaties are Fragile.” Examine some recent peace treaties and discuss the economic arrangements, if any, of such treaties. What economic incentives and mechanisms might be used to make peace treaties more stable and durable so that relapse into (civil) war does not occur?
7. “The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT).” Write a paper on the economics of the proposed ATT. Alternatively, write an economics paper on the similarities and differences between the trade in conventional major weapons and the trade in small arms and light weapons.
8. Recently rocket launchers sold by Sweden to Venezuela were captured by Colombian authorities in a FARC camp. Why would an economist not have been surprised by the news? Discuss the domestic and international regulation of the global arms trade from an economics point of view.
9. Review a recent book or report on conflict economics: e.g, Enders/Sandler’s books on Political Economy of NATO or Political Economy of Terrorism; Ron Smith’s Military Economics; Paul Collier’s Bottom Billion; Brauer/van Tuyll’s Castles, Battles, and Bombs: How Economics Explains Military History; the African Development Bank’s 2008/09 Report Conflict Resolution, Peace and Reconstruction in Africa; the UNDP’s Crisis Prevention and Recovery Report 2008 Post-Conflict Economic Recovery: Enabling Local Ingenuity; the Small Arms Survey/Geneva Declaration's 2008 Report Global Burden of Armed Violence, or the Small Arms Survey’s Small Arms Survey 2009: Shadows of War.
10. Pick an industry such as airlines, tourism, insurance, real estate, agriculture, etc. and write a review of the literature on how the industry is affected by war/civil war/terror, or other forms of armed conflict.
11. Write a review paper on the economics of interpersonal, rather than collective, violence (start by reading WHO 2002, 2004; we can give you copies of these reports if you are interested in this).
12. Write a review paper on the economics of military alliances.

or make up your own topic and have it approved by us. The key criteria are
- you MUST be enthusiastic about the topic and intellectually engaged with it;
- it MUST have more to do with economics than with politics or other academic disciplines;
- and it MUST have to do with violent conflict.

Alternatively, consider the following statements: (1) terrorism is mostly a transnational phenomenon rather than a domestic one; (2) violent, armed conflict is mostly about political grievance, not about greed; (3) all over the world, military expenditure has declined since the end of the cold war; (4) small arms production and trade are more important than that of major conventional arms; (5) private military companies are becoming a substitute for conventional state armed forces. Take a statement such as these, convert it into a question or hypothesis, and then examine it in detail. Of course, you can also ask specific questions right away, e.g., (1) what is the cost of terrorism on the airline industry? (2) what is/was the cost of the Sri Lankan civil war on the country’s economic growth and standard of living? (3) what cost does violent crime impose on the United States? (4) what is the benefit of the NATO alliance on its member states? (5) do all rebel groups follow certain economic principles of organizational behavior (e.g., with regard to recruitment, finance, planning, and action)?

Examples: In 2008 and 2009, students in Bangkok worked on topics such as the following: (1) an examination of the Palestinian labor market and standard of living during Israeli/Palestinian conflict periods; (2) an investigation into the relation between Israeli property and housing prices and the occurence of terror attacks and war; (3) a mapping and analysis of conflict-related news stories printed in The Bangkok Post to the various topics and theories discussed in class; (4) how much is the government of Thailand willing to trade-off economic development in pursuit of security? (5) the conflict diamonds market: case study of Sierra Leone; (6) the economics of Japan’s post-world war two recovery; and (7) war and inflation: the case of the United States. In 2009, students in Bogota wrote on the following topics: (1) using the economic theory of regulation to critical examine the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme; (2) the economics of "the Troubles" in Northern Ireland and the economics of the Good Friday peace agreement; (3) the post-WW II reconstruction of Japan; (4) the Marshall Plan; (5) the economics of South Africa, pre/post-apartheid.

Research paper length and format: Your paper should be typed, single-spaced with 1 inch margins, 12-type font, and between 3-5,000 words in length. The page length requirement is exclusive of title page, figure/s and table/s (if any), and list of references. Your paper is acceptable as a pdf file only and should be submitted in the following format: title page, text, endnotes (if any), references, figure/s and table/s (if any). You must hand in a hard (printed) copy of your final paper and email a pdf copy of the paper to Prof. Brauer (an emailed paper by itself, without a printed copy, will not be accepted and results in a failing grade for the paper). You should also have properly formatted references in your paper.

Research paper assessment: Your paper will be graded on content (e.g., sound economic analysis, good use of economic model, appropriate data, proper data documentation) and on how well it is written (e.g., concise statements, logical constructions, no misspellings, no grammatical errors, proper references and list of references, etc.). We are available in person before and after class, by email [jbrauer@aug.edu and hvantuyl@aug.edu], or by appointment to discuss paper topics with you and comment on your work-in-progress. In fact, we expect that each one of you will be in direct touch with one or both of us every week.

When writing your research paper you may find it useful to ask the following questions:
1. Do the opening two paragraphs contain a clear description of what the paper is focusing on (the topic) and do they contain a clearly stated research question?
2. Does each paragraph have a main point that justifies the paragraph’s presence in the paper?
3. Do the paragraphs follow in a logical order?
4. Does the conclusion follow from the material presented in the paper?
5. Are your arguments supported by examples, graphs, and/or data or are you offering weakly supported opinions?
6. If you use a model, does it strengthen the paper or is it used just for the sake of including a model?
7. Is the paper marred by misspellings, errors in syntax, poorly chosen words, or excessive quotations?
8. Are references presented in a proper and consistent format?
9. Does the paper show clear insight and careful thought?
10. Has the paper gone through multiple drafts and has the final draft been proofread?