[Updated by jpd: 13 July 2011] [Please report broken links to jbrauer@aug.edu]

Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace (Summer 2011)
EBA Programme | Faculty of Economics | Chulalongkorn University | Bangkok, Thailand

Level: Freshmen year and higher | Type: Lecture/seminar
Class days/times: Tuesday/Thursday (two sessions/day: 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs)
Class rooms: Tuesdays (Mahit 612) | Thursdays (Mahit 609)
Prerequisite: Basic microeconomics
Professors: Jurgen Brauer [Germany/U.S.] <jbrauer@aug.edu> and J. Paul Dunne [U.K.] <jpdbris@gmail.com>
Course website: www.carecon.org.uk/peace_Chula_summer2011
Course outline: This eight-weeks-long survey course introduces students to how elementary economics may be employed to think about economic aspects of violence, war, and peace. The point of the course is not to provide ready-made answers but to induce thinking about complex problems and to generate enthusiasm about the topic. While there will be some lecturing and demonstration of techniques, we also emphasize reading, reflection, and discussion.


First things first: Welcome to class. We hope that you will have an enjoyable and formative learning experience with each other and with us.

This page contains links to information in Adobe pdf format. If you do not have Adobe Acrobat Reader on your computer, download it from here. Because we sometimes update Lecture notes just before the day of the lecture, please download lecture notes only for the current lecture day. Otherwise you risk not having the most current notes available to you. The Readings are available at http://www.carecon.org.uk/peace_Readings and copyright-protected (as are all other materials posted here). As a courtesy to you, you may use them for individual study in this class/course, but you may NOT distribute any of the files to anybody else. Please respect the copyright law. A username and password for the readings will be provided in class.


Assignments:

1. Lecture/reading summaries (7 x 2% = 14%): There are 7 written assignments; each is 2 single-spaced pages in length. Page 1 is your reflective summary of the lecture/readings (called “Summary and Question, Comment, Response,” or S-QCR); page 2 is your response to one of the assigned Readings. [See the templates below.] These MUST be handed in on paper at the beginning of class. Late assignments are not accepted. Assignments are marked on a pass/fail basis. Anything that reads like “done over breakfast,” or reads as in any way having been done in a perfunctory, thoughtless manner, is a “fail.” If you did not attend the lecture (or came late or left early or were inattentive) your grade is an automatic “fail.”

2. Exams (2 x 25% = 50%): One midterm, one final exam. Both exams are based on the lectures and the readings.

3. Research project (36%): [Presentation: 10% | final written report: 26%] [Groups of 2 to 3 students.]
- Written report: The study MUST be a data-based assessment of economic causes and/or consequences of violent conflict and the channels by which the economic effects take/took place. A mere compilation of data is not enough and merits a grade of “F.” The longer your time-series of data, the greater your opportunities for assessment. The data can be micro or macroeconomic in nature, or both. In terms of economic theory, structuring the report in terms of “resource diversion, trade disruption, and asset destruction” (on which Prof. Brauer will lecture early on in the term) will often be a sufficient starting point. The written report MUST be between 3,000 and 5,000 words in length (about 8 to 12 double-spaced pages). The English MUST be near-perfect (seek writing help as needed).
- Presentation: Prof. Dunne will provide details.
- Further instructions are given toward the bottom of this page.

Academic honesty: While discussion and cooperation among students is encouraged, cheating, ghostwriting, plagiarism, or other forms of dishonesty on the exams or in the preparation of the final paper is not tolerated and results in a failing grade for the course

Grading and grades: 90+% = A; 85-89% = B+; 80-84% = B; 75-79% = C+; 70-74% = C; 65-69% = D+; 60-64% = D; <60% = F.



TENTATIVE SCHEDULE (likely to change because of holidays)

Week 1: Tu 31 May | Th 2 June

Tuesday 31 May 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs
- S1 (ppt | pdf): Course introduction; selected conflict data (who, what, why, when, where, and how?) (Anderton/Carter, 2009, ch 1)
- S2 (ppt | pdf): A theory of death (Anderton/Carter, 2009, ch 9.1 or Boulding 1970 [1968] here)

Thursday 2 June 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs
- Assignment #1 due [S-QCR for Tu 31 May]
- S1 (ppt | pdf): The three economies; the production of security; the PPF model (Smith, ch 1; Anderton/Carter ch 2)
- S2 (ppt | pdf): The Edgeworth Box model (Anderton/Carter chs 3, 12.3)

Week 2: Tu 7 June | Th 9 June

Tuesday 7 June 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs
- Assignment #2 due [S-QCR for Th 2 June]
- S1 (ppt | pdf): A bargaining model of conflict (Anderton/Carter, 2009, chs 5, 6)
- S2 (ppt | pdf): Alliance model (Anderton/Carter, 2009, ch 11)

Thursday 9 June 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs
- Assignment #3 due [S-QCR for Tu 7 June]
- Research paper: Highly specific research question and data statement due
- S1 (ppt | pdf): ABC/WMD weapons overview (Anderton/Carter, 2009, ch 10)
- S2 (ppt | pdf): Arms race models plus spreadsheet [here]


Week 3: Tu 14 June | Th 16 June

Tuesday 14 June 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs
- Assignment #4 due [S-QCR for Th 9 June]
- S1 (ppt | pdf): Conscription and all-volunteer forces (Poutvaara/Wagener, 2007; Simon/Warner, 2007)
- S2 (ppt | pdf): Private military/security companies (Brauer/van Tuyll, 2008, ch 8; Williamson, 1999)

Thursday 16 June 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs
- Assignment #5 due [S-QCR for Tu 14 June]
- S1 (ppt | pdf): Major conventional arms; arms production; arms trade (Brauer, 2007)
- S2 (ppt | pdf): Arms trade tax? Arms trade offsets (Brzoska, 2004; Brauer/Dunne, 2011)


Week 4: Tu 21 June | Th 23 June

Tuesday 21 June 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs
- Assignment #6 due [S-QCR for Th 16 June]
- S1 (ppt | pdf): Terrorism I (Llussa/Tavares, 2007; Enders/Sandler, 2006, ch 4)
- S2 (ppt | pdf): Terrorism II (Enders/Sandler, 2006, ch 4; Anderton/Carter ch 8)

FRIDAY 24 June 13:00-16:00 hrs
- Assignment #7 due [S-QCR for Tu 21 June]
- Research paper: 2 to 3 page detailed outline due (1) research question/hypothesis; (2) data; (3) economic theory
- Pretest for midterm exam [here]
- Midterm exam [Room 604, Mahit building]


Week 5: Tu 28 June | Th 30 June

Tuesday 28 June 13:00-14:30 and 14:45-16:15 hrs [note the extended hours]
- S1 (ppt | pdf): Macroeconomics and violence (draft v7: Brauer/Dunne, 2011 plus Figures)
[Official reports: GD 2008; UNDP, 2008; AfDB, 2009; WDR 2011]
- S2 (ppt | pdf): Defense, conflict, security, or peace economics? (Brück, 2005; Brauer, 2006; Wennmann, 2010; Bove, 2011; draft v7: Brauer/Dunne, ch. 5, 2011 plus Figures)

Thursday 30 June 13:00-14:30 and 14:45-16:15 hrs [note the extended hours]

The Arms Market I
Notes 1 | Notes 2 |
Readings:
Paul Poast (2006) "The Economics of War", Mc Graw-Hill. Chapter 5.
EB Kapstein (1992) "the political Economy of National Security", Mc Graw Hill, Ch 4,5
"Arms Production" Chapter 9 in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook, 2006. With Eamon Surry. Draft here tables here
"Arms Production, Economics of", Forthcoming 2007 in Lester Kurtz (ed) Encyclopaedia of Violence, Peace and Conflict, 2nd edition. Elsevier. With Elisabeth Skons. Draft here
Paper on Sector Futures: Defence Industry prepared with Cambridge Econometrics for European Monitoring Centre on Change, can be found here
"The Evolution of the International Arms Industries", in Wolfram Elsner(ed)(2007) Arms, War, and Terrorism in the Global Economy Today -Economic Analyses and Civilian Alternatives. ISBN 3-8258-0045-8. With Maria Garcia-Alonso, Paul Levine and Ron Smith here
- Smith, Ron (2009) "Military Economics", Macmillan. Chapter 5 here
- Smith, Ron (2009) "Military Economics", Macmillan. Chapter 6 here J Paul Dunne & Elisabeth Skons, 2011. "The Changing Military Industrial Complex," Discussion Papers 1104, University of the West of England, Department of Economics here

The Arms Market II
Notes 3 | Notes 4



Week 6: Tu 5 July |

Tuesday 5 July 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-15:45 hrs

The Arms Trade
Notes
Readings:
Paul Poast (2006) "The Economics of War", Mc Graw-Hill. Chapter 5.
Ethan B Kapstein (1992) "The political Economy of National Security", Mc Graw Hill, Ch 4,5
David Kiefer "International Arms Trade After the Cold War", Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics Volume 13 Number 2 May 2001 here
"The Impact of a Responsible Arms Control Policy on the UK Economy" Report prepared for Oxfam, for their Control Arms campaign, 2003. Mimeo, School of Economics, University of the West of England. With Sam Perlo-Freeman. Available here
Anthony Sampson (1991) The Arms Bazaar, Coronet books.
Some useful background here and here and here - Smith, Ron (2009) "Military Economics", Macmillan. Chapter 6 here

- Research paper: update due to Prof. Paul Dunne




Week 7: Tu 12 July | Th 14 July

Tuesday 12 July 13:00-14:15 and 14:30-16:30 hrs[note the extended hours]

Military Expenditure, Growth and Development
Notes
Readings:
Dunne, Paul (2008) "Does High Spending on Arms Reduce Economic Growth? A Review of Research" Report for Oxfam. March. Draft here
Smith D and R Smith (1983) The Economics of Militarism. Pluto Press, London.
Dunne P (1990) The Political Economy of Military Expenditure: an introduction, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol 14, no 4, pp 395-404.
Brauer, Jurgen and J Paul Dunne (eds) 2002. Arming the South: The Economics of Military Expenditures, Arms Production and Trade in Developing Countries. Palgrave, April. ISBN: 0-333-75440-9
Dunne, Paul (1996)"Economic Effects of Miltary Spending in LDCs: A Survey", Chapter 23 in Nils Petter Gleditsch, Adne Cappelen, Olav Bjerkholt, Ron Smith and Paul Dunne (eds) (1996) "The Peace Dividend", North Holland, pp 439-464. Draft here
- Smith, Ron (2009) "Military Economics", Macmillan. Chapter 8: Economic Choices here

Thursday 14 July 13:30-16:30 hrs [note the extended hours]

Post Conflict Reconstruction.
Notes
Readings:
Brauer and Dunne pdf): Macroeconomics and violence (draft v7) 2011 plus Figures)
Paul Dunne "After the Slaughter: Reconstructing Mozambique and Rwanda" Economics of Peace and Security Journal, Vol. 1 No. 2, June 2006. ISSN 1749-852X. Here
Paul Collier's lecture on War and Peace in Africa here and his book "The Bottom Billion" [chap. 2] [chap. 2] Oxford University Press.
Bassam Yousif "Economic aspects of peacekeeping in Iraq:what went wrong?", Economics of Peace and Security Journal,Vol. 1 No. 2, June 2006. Here
Christopher Coyne "Deconstructing reconstruction: the overlooked challenges of military occupation", Economics of Peace and Security Journal,Vol. 1 No. 2, June 2006. here
Cooper, 2006 here Lamb, 2006 here
There are other useful papers in the EPSJ here


Week 8: Tu 19 July | Th 21 July

Tuesday 19 July
- Review and presentation of students' research projects
[a mock final exam paper is available here.]

Thursday 21 July
- Research paper: final written study due at beginning of final exam
- Final exam 13.00


Template for written assignments. For the first page, use this template. [12-point; 1-inch margins; single spaced]

First, last name: [first, last name] | Nick name: [nick name] | Date: [day month year]
Student email: [myname@server.com] | Student number: [xxx-xxxxx-xx]
Assignment number: [xx] | Topic: [the lecture’s topic] | Page: #1

[Paragraph #1] Summarize what the lecture is about. Be specific; use “for example,” “for instance,” “to illustrate.” Don’t say “This lecture/reading was about arms production.” Evidently, this is not informative; it is not a summary. To summarize a complex topic in one paragraph takes work. It takes practice. You will get better as you progress through the term. Notice that many, although not all, lectures begin with a contextual introduction and end with a summative conclusion. Use these as a guide but DO NOT COPY. I want YOUR thoughts and YOUR words, not someone else’s. From time to time, I may give this page to an outside reader. If s/he fails to understand what you have written then you have failed to communicate and have therefore failed the assignment as well.

[Paragraph #2] Summarize one or the other point the teacher emphasized in the lecture. Again, be specific.

[Paragraph #3] Highlight one or the other aspect of the lecture that you found particularly interesting or important for you, and tell your reader WHY this was interesting or important. What did you learn? What thoughts did it stimulate? What more would you like to learn about this topic? How does this perhaps tie in with other things or courses you have learned, are learning, or look forward to learning at EBA-Chula?

[Paragraph #4] Now that you have listened to the lecture, what questions are being raised in your mind? Make a comment, an observation, a response, a discussion point, perhaps based on something you have seen or read elsewhere. Do not just ask a question but reflect upon to see how one might go about addressing your question.

Be sure that the four paragraphs are balanced, roughly 1/4 page each.

For the second page, use this template. [12-point; 1-inch margins; single spaced]

First, last name: [first, last name] | Nick name: [nick name] | Date: [day month year]
Student email: [myname@server.com] | Student number: [xxx-xxxxx-xx]
Assignment number: [xx] | Reading: [author/s, year, chapter] | Page: #2

[Paragraph #1] Summarize what the specific reading by [author/s, year, chapter] is about. Provide an overview to guide the reader. Don’t say “This reading was about terrorism.” Evidently, this is not enough. Instead, be specific. For example, write “The chapter by Enders and Sandler (2007, ch. 4) uses simple game theory to illustrate real-world difficulties in the implementation of counter-terrorist policies. These policies include [...].” DO NOT COPY. I want YOUR thoughts and YOUR words, not someone else’s. From time to time, I may give this page to an outside reader. If s/he fails to understand what you have written then you have failed to communicate and have therefore failed the assignment as well.

[Paragraph #2] Summarize what you believe are the main points, insights, or lessons of the specific reading.

[Paragraph #3] Highlight one aspect or point of the specific reading that YOU found particularly interesting or important, and tell your reader WHY this was interesting or important. What did you learn? What thoughts did it stimulate? What more would you like to learn about this topic? How does this tie in with other things or courses you have learned, are learning, or look forward to learning at EBA-Chula?

[Paragraph #4] Now that you have completed the specific reading, what questions are being raised in your mind? Make a comment, an observation, a response, a discussion point, perhaps based on something you have seen or read elsewhere. Be careful not just to state a question or comment but to reflect on it as well.

Be sure that the four paragraphs are balanced, roughly 1/4 page each.



Research (group/collaborative) project:
- A 3,000 to 5,000 word (about 8 to 12 pages), double-spaced paper for groups of 2 to 3 students each: solid draft outline due at the beginning of the midterm exam; student presentation of the project (research question/hypothesis, economic concept/model, data, findings, implications) [10%]; final paper due at beginning of the final exam [26%]. Potential topics listed below.

Group paper [some of the material hereunder is by courtesy of Prof. Charles Anderton]

Purpose and schedule: The purpose of the paper assignment is for you to write about a peace, (armed) conflict, or security issue from the perspective of economics. Most importantly, the project must be data-based. Your paper may involve perspectives from other disciplines (e.g., political science, history, sociology), but you should focus on using economic concepts - a "model," even if a simple one - to develop one or more of your major points. Although it is important to use economic methods in explaining your topic, do not overuse or “force” the economic analysis just to satisfy the assignment. Instead, use economic concepts and a model to strengthen and deepen your analysis and presentation.

In practical terms, (1) you need to ask a research question that you wish to answer, (2) you need to use data, and (3) you need to use some economic theory to answer the question. By Thursday, 9 June, you need to give Prof. Brauer a one-paragraph statement of your question and the data you may wish to use, and you need to list the (nick)names and emails of the members of your group. By Thursday, 23 June, you need to provide Prof. Brauer with a thorough 2 to 3 page outline of your group paper (in print and emailed as a Word or pdf document), describing the progress you have made (1) in refining the question, (2) in collecting, preparing, and analyzing the data, and (3) indicating the economic concept, or model, to be used to address your research question. The progress report is due at the BEGINNING of the midterm exam. By Thursday, 7 July, you need to email Prof. Dunne a one-page update describing the overall progress you have made, focusing the data collection and analysis. The final, complete paper (in print and as an emailed file) is due on Thursday 21 July at the BEGINNING of the final exam. (There is also an in-class presentation and discussion due; see schedule.)

Group paper topics: When considering possible paper topics, it is important to find one that is narrow, well-defined, manageable, and amenable to economic analysis. For example, a paper about war in general is too broad. A better focus would be a specific small-scale war (e.g., 1995 Peru/Ecuador border conflict), a particular battle (e.g., Gettysburg), or a particular engagement within a battle (e.g., Little Round Top at Gettysburg). When searching for a paper topic, consider reviewing newspapers, weekly periodicals, or reputable online sources. The class readings provide numerous applications of economics to conflict topics. Many of these leads could be followed up and developed into a paper.

Alternatively, consider the following statements: (1) terrorism is mostly a transnational phenomenon rather than a domestic one; (2) violent, armed conflict is mostly about genuine political grievance, not about greed; (2) all over the world, military expenditure has declined since the end of the cold war; (4) small arms production and trade are more important than that of major conventional arms; (5) private military companies are becoming a substitute for conventional state armed forces. Take a statement such as these, convert it into a question or hypothesis, and then examine it in detail. Of course, you can also ask specific questions right away, e.g., (1) what is the cost of terrorism on the airline industry? (2) what is/was the cost of the Sri Lankan civil war on the country’s economic growth and standard of living? (3) what cost does violent crime impose on the United States? (4) what is the benefit of the NATO alliance on its member states? (5) do all rebel groups follow certain economic principles of organizational behavior (e.g., with regard to recruitment, finance, planning, and action)?

In the past, students worked on topics such as the following: (1) an examination of the Palestinian labor market and standard of living during the Israeli/Palestinian conflict; (2) an examination of the Israeli property and housing markets during periods of Middle Eastern unrest; (3) U.S. military expenditure and inflation; (4) nuclear weapons testing; (5) evolutionary game theory and roadside bombs in Iraq; (6) the peace process in Northern Ireland; (7) Japan’s post-World War II recovery; (8) a mapping and analysis of conflict-related news stories printed in The Bangkok Post to the various topics and theories discussed in class; (9) the conflict diamonds market and the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme; (10) an examination of the Napoleonic wars (Britain-France) in light of arms race models; and many others.

Group paper length and format: Your paper should be typed, double-spaced with 1 inch margins, 12-type font, and 3,000 to 5,000 words in length. The paper length requirement is exclusive of title page, figure(s), tables (if any), and list of references. Your paper should be submitted in the following format: title page, text, endnotes (if any), references, figure(s), and tables (if any). You must hand in a hard (printed) copy of your paper and email a copy of the paper (an emailed paper only will not be accepted). You should also have properly formatted references in your paper.

Group paper assessment: Your paper will be graded on content (e.g., thorough data collection; at least an adequate model; sound analysis) and on how well it is written (e.g., concise statements, logical constructions, no misspellings, no grammatical errors, etc.). Prof. Jurgen Brauer and Prof. Paul Dunne are available in person before class, during class breaks, after class, during office hours, by email, or by appointment to discuss paper topics with you and comment on your work-in-progress.

When writing your paper you may find it useful to ask the following questions:

1. Do the two opening paragraphs contain a clear description of what the paper is focusing and on and do they contain a clearly stated research question?
2. Does each paragraph have a main point that justifies the paragraph’s presence in the paper?
3. Do the paragraphs follow in a logical order?
4. Does the conclusion follow from the material presented in the paper?
5. Are your arguments supported by examples, graphs, and/or data or are you offering weakly supported opinions?
6. Does your model strengthen the paper or is it used just for the sake of including a model?
7. Is the paper marred by misspellings, errors in syntax, poorly chosen words, or excessive quotations?
8. Are references presented in a proper and consistent format?
9. Does the paper show clear insight and careful thought?
10. Has the paper gone through multiple drafts and has the final draft been proofread?



Some data sources:
  • Costs of War
  • World Bank
  • IMF International Monetary Fund
  • SIPRI Stockholm International Peace research Institute
  • IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • WMEAT
  • Small Arms Small Arms Survey
  • COW Correlates of War
  • PRIO Conflict Peace Research Institute Oslo
  • UCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Programme
  • COSIMO Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research
  • CNS James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
  • NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative
  • GTD Global Terrorsm Database
  • GPI Glocal Peace Index
  • ATOP The Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions Project
  • CIDCM International Crisis Behavior Project (ICB)
  • ACDA (U.S. Arms Control & Disarmament Agency)
  • ASMPArms Sales Monitoring Project Homepage
  • BASIC (British American Security Information Council)
  • CATThe Conventional Arms Transfer Project
  • CCCIPSCanadian Council for International Peace and Security
  • CDI The Center for Defense Information
  • CECThe Center for Economic Conversion (California)
  • COPRI Copenhagen Peace Research Institute
  • DFAXDFAX main index page
  • DFDDemilitarization for Democracy
  • FAS (Federation of American Scientists)
  • HRWHuman Rights Watch
  • ISN (International Relations and Security Network)
  • Jane'sJane's Defense Monitor
  • GRIP Groupe de Recherche et d'Information sur la Paix et las Securite
  • MSWG MilitarySpending Working Group
  • NCECD National Commission for Economic Conversion and Disarmament
  • NGO Committee on Disarmament
  • PREPCOMPrepatory Committee for a Global Campaign on Small Arms and Light Weapons
  • PDA Project on Defense Alternatives- at the Commonwealth Institute
  •